Since
the turn of the century, the global recession has affected most businesses,
including industrial automation. After four years of the new millennium, here
are my views on the directions in which the automation industry is moving.
The rear-view mirror
Because of the relatively small production volumes and
huge varieties of applications, industrial automation typically utilizes new
technologies developed in other markets. Automation companies tend to
customize products for specific applications and requirements. So the
innovation comes from targeted applications, rather than any hot, new
technology.
Over the past few decades, some innovations have indeed
given industrial automation new surges of growth: The programmable logic
controller (PLC) – developed by Dick Morley and others – was designed to
replace relay-logic; it generated growth in applications where custom logic
was difficult to implement and change. The PLC was a lot more reliable than
relay-contacts, and much easier to program and reprogram. Growth was rapid in
automobile test-installations, which had to be re-programmed often for new
car models. The PLC has had a long and productive life – some three decades –
and (understandably) has now become a commodity.
At about the same time that the PLC was developed,
another surge of innovation came through the use of computers for control
systems. Mini-computers replaced large central mainframes in central control
rooms, and gave rise to "distributed" control systems (DCS),
pioneered by Honeywell with its TDC 2000. But, these were not really
"distributed" because they were still relatively large clumps of
computer hardware and cabinets filled with I/O connections.
The arrival of the PC brought low-cost PC-based
hardware and software, which provided DCS functionality with significantly
reduced cost and complexity. There was no fundamental technology innovation
here—rather, these were innovative extensions of technology developed for
other mass markets, modified and adapted for industrial automation
requirements.
On the sensor side were indeed some significant
innovations and developments which generated good growth for specific
companies. With better specifications and good marketing, Rosemount's
differential pressure flow-sensor quickly displaced lesser products. And
there were a host of other smaller technology developments that caused
pockets of growth for some companies. But few grew beyond a few hundred
million dollars in annual revenue.
Automation software has had its day, and can't go much
further. No "inflection point" here. In the future, software will
embed within products and systems, with no major independent innovation on
the horizon. The plethora of manufacturing software solutions and services
will yield significant results, but all as part of other systems.
So, in general, innovation and technology can and will
reestablish growth in industrial automation. But, there won't be any
technology innovations that will generate the next Cisco or Apple or
Microsoft.
We cannot figure out future trends merely by extending
past trends; it’s like trying to drive by looking only at a rear-view mirror.
The automation industry does NOT extrapolate to smaller and cheaper PLCs,
DCSs, and supervisory control and data acquisition systems; those functions
will simply be embedded in hardware and software. Instead, future growth will
come from totally new directions.
New technology directions
Industrial automation can and will generate explosive
growth with technology related to new inflection points: nanotechnology and
nanoscale assembly systems; MEMS and nanotech sensors (tiny, low-power,
low-cost sensors) which can measure everything and anything; and the
pervasive Internet, machine to machine (M2M) networking.
Real-time systems will give way to complex adaptive
systems and multi-processing. The future belongs to nanotech, wireless
everything, and complex adaptive systems.
Major new software applications will be in wireless
sensors and distributed peer-to-peer networks – tiny operating systems in
wireless sensor nodes, and the software that allows nodes to communicate with
each other as a larger complex adaptive system. That is the wave of the
future.
The fully-automated factory
Automated factories and processes are too expensive to
be rebuilt for every modification and design change – so they have to be
highly configurable and flexible. To successfully reconfigure an entire
production line or process requires direct access to most of its control
elements – switches, valves, motors and drives – down to a fine level of
detail.
The vision of fully automated factories has already
existed for some time now: customers order online, with electronic
transactions that negotiate batch size (in some cases as low as one), price,
size and color; intelligent robots and sophisticated machines smoothly and
rapidly fabricate a variety of customized products on demand.
The promise of remote-controlled automation is finally
making headway in manufacturing settings and maintenance applications. The
decades-old machine-based vision of automation – powerful super-robots
without people to tend them – underestimated the importance of
communications. But today, this is purely a matter of networked intelligence
which is now well developed and widely available.
Communications support of a very high order is now
available for automated processes: lots of sensors, very fast networks, quality
diagnostic software and flexible interfaces – all with high levels of
reliability and pervasive access to hierarchical diagnosis and
error-correction advisories through centralized operations.
The large, centralized production plant is a thing of
the past. The factory of the future will be small, movable (to where the
resources are, and where the customers are). For example, there is really no
need to transport raw materials long distances to a plant, for processing,
and then transport the resulting product long distances to the consumer. In
the old days, this was done because of the localized know-how and investments
in equipment, technology and personnel. Today, those things are available
globally.
Hard truths about globalization
The assumption has always been that the US and other
industrialized nations will keep leading in knowledge-intensive industries
while developing nations focus on lower skills and lower labor costs. That's
now changed. The impact of the wholesale entry of 2.5 billion people (China
and India) into the global economy will bring big new challenges and amazing
opportunities.
Beyond just labor, many businesses (including major
automation companies) are also outsourcing knowledge work such as design and
engineering services. This trend has already become significant, causing
joblessness not only for manufacturing labor, but also for traditionally
high-paying engineering positions.
Innovation is the true source of value, and that is in
danger of being dissipated – sacrificed to a short-term search for profit,
the capitalistic quarterly profits syndrome. Countries like Japan and Germany
will tend to benefit from their longer-term business perspectives. But,
significant competition is coming from many rapidly developing countries with
expanding technology prowess. So, marketing speed and business agility will
be offsetting advantages.
The winning differences
In a global market, there are three keys that
constitute the winning edge:
- Proprietary
products: developed quickly and inexpensively (and perhaps globally),
with a continuous stream of upgrade and adaptation to maintain
leadership.
- High-value-added
products: proprietary products and knowledge offered through effective
global service providers, tailored to specific customer needs.
- Global
yet local services: the special needs and custom requirements of remote
customers must be handled locally, giving them the feeling of
partnership and proximity.
To implementing these directions demands management and
leadership abilities that are different from old, financially-driven models.
In the global economy, automation companies have little choice – they must
find more ways and means to expand globally. To do this they need to minimize
domination of central corporate cultures, and maximize responsiveness to
local customer needs. Multi-cultural countries, like the U.S., will have
significant advantages in these important business aspects.
In the new and different business environment of the
21st century, the companies that can adapt, innovate and utilize global
resources will generate significant growth and success.
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